Mostaghimi, Mehdi; Rezayat, Fahimeh - 1998
This paper presents a methodology for producing a probability forecast of a turning point in U.S. economy using …-theoretic measurement to produce a probability. The methodology is flexible using as many historical data points as desired. This … methodology is applied to producing probability forecasts of a downturn in U.S. economy in 1970-1990 period. Four probability …