The prices of derivatives contracts can be used to estimate ‘risk-neutral' probability density functions that give an indication of the weight investors place on different future prices of their underlying assets, were they risk-neutral. In the likely case that investors are risk-averse, this...

The traditional derivation of risk-neutral probability in the binomial option pricing framework used in introductory mathematical finance courses is straightforward, but employs several different concepts and is is not algebraically simple. In order to overcome this drawback of the standard...

All too often, the concept of risk-neutral probabilities in mathematical finance is poorly explained, and misleading statements are made. The aim of this paper is to provide an intuitive understanding of risk-neutral probabilities, and to explain in an easily accessible manner how they can be...