Option prices seem to behave in ways inconsistent with the Black-Scholes model. Implied volatility varies with the … strike price in a parabolic shape that is often called the volatility 'smile.' My objective in this paper is to identify … promising in explaining the volatility smile. Applying this to the ERM data, I find that the probability of a devaluation in the …

We analyze the implied volatility smile of a lognormal distribution on a on a 6 – month EUR/USD call currency option … contract using a random standard normal variable. There is significant time variation in the implied volatility smile and the … estimates of a risk adjusted measure. Deep in or out of the money contract has higher implied volatility. We have found that the …