We solve a canonical, estimated, medium-sized, open-economy New Keynesian model, cast it into a small-scale population vector autoregression, and assess whether best-practice structural identifications detect textbook "overshooting" after a monetary policy hike-i.e., an instant real appreciation...

This paper elaborates on the link between financial market volatility and real economic activity. Using monthly data for Germany from 1968 to 1998, we specify GARCH models to capture the variability of stock market prices, of the real exchange rate, and of a long-term and of a short-term rate of...

In this paper, I have investigated the out of sample forecast performance for a case study on the determination of the nominal exchange rate for USD vis-à-vis IN¬R under VEC, VAR (in first difference) and Bayesian VAR specification with the help of set of economic theories. The forecast...

The paper investigates exchange rate cycles and their relationship to the business cycle in 7 major emerging market economies. We document the presence of periodic cycles in nominal US-dollar exchange rates and show that these are closely aligned with cycle frequencies in real output. Joint...

The traditional view of the exchange rate as a shock absorber has been challenged by a number of studies. Therefore, it is not surprising to identify economies in which exchange rate movements fuel business cycle volatility. We assess whether the Czech economy belongs to this group. We analyze...

Although the link between oil prices and dollar exchange rates has been frequently analyzed, a clear distinction between prices and nominal exchange rate dynamics and a clarification of the issue of causality has not been provided. In addition, previous studies have mostly neglected...

The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments (BOP) in Nigeria over the period 1961 - 2012. The analysis is based on a multivariate vector error correction framework. A long-term equilibrium relationship was found between BOP, exchange rate and other...

Forecasts of inflation in the United States since the mid eighties have had smaller errors than in the past, but those conditional on commonly used variables cannot consistently beat the ones from univariate models. This paper shows through simple modifications to the classical monetary model...