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Stylized empirical facts about the correlation between the volume of international trade and exchange rate variability/uncertainty are at odds with the predictions of the simple open economy model. The present paper argues that this puzzle may be explained by drawing on the recent theoretical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011615388
This paper shows that exchange rates respond to only the surprise component of an actual US monetary policy change and that failure to disentangle the surprise component from the actual monetary policy change can lead to an underestimation of the impact of monetary policy, or even to a false...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320908
day-to-day changes in expectations of future US monetary policy, in the context of a study of day-to-day exchange rate … changes. We analyze more than 12 years of daily exchange rate data and show that continuous day-to-day changes in expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010320954
expectations. We provide ample anecdotal, historical, and heuristic information on the goodness-of-fit of the various exchange rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343290
This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … the adjustment of exchange rate expectations. Our findings are robust to different forecasting horizons and point to an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532311
developments into account while expectations for minor currencies react stronger to response policies. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818059
This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building … mechanism in foreign exchange markets. We analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for expected … expectations regarding GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and current accounts. Our empirical findings show that fundamentals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012990178
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395264
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000315
In this paper the author analyzes the behavior of exchange rates expectations for four currencies, by considering a re …-calculation and an extension of Resende and Zeidan (Expectations and chaotic dynamics: Empirical evidence on exchange rates, Economics … expectations, although the so-called 0-1 test strongly supports the chaos hypothesis. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011863440