Foreign exchange expectations, overconfidence, central banks' foreign exchange interventions, financial development, risk attitudes. - Wechselkurserwartungen, Selbstüberschätzung, Wechselkursinterventionen von Zentralbanken, Entwicklung von Finanzmärkten, Risikoeinstellung

The high-frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions. Evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction. Interventions increase volatility in the short run...

In this paper we demonstrate that there is evidence of an unstable and nonlinear relationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. Modeling this time-varying nature of the importance of fundamentals in a Markov switching framework substantially improves the fit of the real interest rate...

This paper describes and analyzes automated intervention of a target zone. Unusually detailed information about the order book allows studying intervention effects in a microstructure approach. We find in our sample that intervention increases exchange rate volatility (and spread) for the next...