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Both empirical and theoretical studies suggest that currency attacks can occur even in a fixed exchange rate regime with sound fundamentals. Can mechanisms be designed to prevent such currency attacks? To address this question, we first need a theory of currency crisis. I argue that such a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291933
We find that variation in expected U.S. productivity explains over half of U.S. dollar/G7 exchange rate fluctuations. Both correctly-anticipated changes in productivity and expectational noise, which influences the expectation of productivity but not its eventual realization, have large effects....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576625
We examine the relation between exchange rate variability and stock return volatility for U.S. multinational firms and decompose this relation into components of systematic and diversifiable risk. Focusing on two five-year periods around the 1973 switch from fixed to floating exchange rates, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081564
When do flexible exchange rates prevent monetary and financial conditions from spilling over across currencies? We examine a model in which international investors strategically supply capital to a small inflation-targeting economy with flexible exchange rates. For some combination of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011856706
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The United States (US) extracts a large macroeconomic premium from foreigners: she enjoys higher consumption and GDP growths on average relative to the rest of the world (ROW). This is earned even though the US is relatively insulated against global consumption and GDP risks, challenging a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077659
This paper investigates the effect of domestic and global uncertainty on the volatility of the Mexican peso US dollar … estimated exchange rate volatility on domestic and global uncertainty proxies, built with data from the survey of professional … Davis global economic policy uncertainty index (EPU). A trade uncertainty index based on Google trends is incorporated in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897453
Applying Ismailov and Rossi (2018), I newly construct the Korea FX uncertainty based on the density distribution of … historical forecast errors. This uncertainty index properly captures the rare but significant events in the Korean currency … market and provides information distinct from other uncertainty measures in recent studies. I show that 1) FX uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014095570
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