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Both empirical and theoretical studies suggest that currency attacks can occur even in a fixed exchange rate regime with sound fundamentals. Can mechanisms be designed to prevent such currency attacks? To address this question, we first need a theory of currency crisis. I argue that such a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291933
We find that variation in expected U.S. productivity explains over half of U.S. dollar/G7 exchange rate fluctuations. Both correctly-anticipated changes in productivity and expectational noise, which influences the expectation of productivity but not its eventual realization, have large effects....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576625
We examine the relation between exchange rate variability and stock return volatility for U.S. multinational firms and decompose this relation into components of systematic and diversifiable risk. Focusing on two five-year periods around the 1973 switch from fixed to floating exchange rates, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081564
This paper investigates the effect of domestic and global uncertainty on the volatility of the Mexican peso US dollar … estimated exchange rate volatility on domestic and global uncertainty proxies, built with data from the survey of professional … Davis global economic policy uncertainty index (EPU). A trade uncertainty index based on Google trends is incorporated in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897453
I use Forex trading data to study how risks associated with the lack of liquidity contribute to the dynamics of 17 spot exchange rates through their time-varying contributions to risk premia. I find that liquidity risk matters. All the foreign exchange risk premia compensate investors for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824202
The United States (US) extracts a large macroeconomic premium from foreigners: she enjoys higher consumption and GDP growths on average relative to the rest of the world (ROW). This is earned even though the US is relatively insulated against global consumption and GDP risks, challenging a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077659
Applying Ismailov and Rossi (2018), I newly construct the Korea FX uncertainty based on the density distribution of … historical forecast errors. This uncertainty index properly captures the rare but significant events in the Korean currency … market and provides information distinct from other uncertainty measures in recent studies. I show that 1) FX uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014095570
This paper examines the use of U.S. cash dollars as a secondary currency in informal transactions worldwide. While there is considerable interest in and a large theoretical literature on the use of secondary currencies, few empirical results have been established. The primary reason is that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134235
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009159502
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