What is the relationship between interest rates and the exchange rate? The empirical literature in this area has been inconclusive. We use an optimizing model of a small open economy to rationalize the mixed empirical findings. The model has three key margins. First, higher domestic interest...

A basic prediction of effcient risk-sharing is that relative consumption growth rates across countries or regions should be positively related to real exchange rate growth rates across the same areas. We investigate this hypothesis, employing a newly constructed multi-country and multi-regional...

We present a new data fact: in response to a monetary tightening, the nominal exchange tends to appreciate in developed countries but depreciate in developing countries. A model is formalized to rationalize this puzzling pattern. It has three key channels of monetary transmission: a liquidity...

Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

This paper provides new perspective on the poor performance of exchange rate models by focusing on the information structure of FX trading. I present a new theoretical model of FX trading that emphasizes the role of incomplete and heterogeneous information. The model shows how an equilibrium...

This paper tests whether macroeconomic news is transmitted to exchange rates via the transactions process and if so, what share occurs via transactions versus the traditional direct channel. We identify the link between order flow and macro news using a heteroskedasticity-based approach, a la...