The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of oil price volatility. It analyses the information function of oil future market and investigates the relation between speculation and spot oil price in the short run. Furthermore, the paper constructs a model for long run equilibrium able to...

This paper considers how an investor in the foreign exchange market can exploit predictive information by means of flexible Bayesian inference. Using a variety of different vector autoregressive models, the investor is able, each period, to revise past predictive mistakes and learn about...