In studies concluding that public debt may hamper GDP, the debt tipping effects are estimated as if there were a single world currency. This means that such studies ignore the likely biggest cause of changes in growth rates, namely damage from exchange rate liquidity shocks because we do not...

To counter the sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc that set in in the wake of the European sovereign debt crisis, on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank announced to enforce a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of CHF 1.20. We find that the simple, though elegant model for the exchange rate...

A technical analysis shows that the doomsayers who support the euro at all costs and those who naively theorize that a single currency is the root of all evil are both wrong. A euro exit could be a way of getting back to growth, but at the same time it would entail serious risks, especially for...

Currency and financial turmoils in international capital markets have been the focus of an extensive theoretical research which started around 30 years ago. This paper provides a synthetic overview of this theoretical modeling. We analyze the basic analytical framework corresponding to the...

I study the impact of US monetary policy on managed exchange rates by analyzing the pricing of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) around FOMC meetings. The significant negative impact of US monetary surprises on abnormal ADR returns for currencies that are managed reflects changes in these...

We introduce a novel currency risk measure based on American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Using an augmented ADR pricing model, we exploit investors' exposure to potential devaluation losses to derive an indicator of currency risk. Using weekly data for a sample of 807 ADRs located in 21 emerging...

Starting from the stylized fact that the Swiss franc is a safe haven currency, this paper focuses on the determinants of the Swiss franc during the lower bound regime from September 2011 to January 2015. We describe the Swiss franc as a function of global market risk fundamentals and find that...

This paper studies how the interaction between policy maker's reputation for defending against speculative attacks and speculators' learning of the policy maker's type determines the emergence of speculative attacks and the outcome of regime change. If speculators receive conditionally...

With the recent economic crisis of 2008, global liquidity increased tremendously which in return, gave rise to the concerns regarding the “Currency Wars” due to consecutive monetary expansions conducted by both advanced and emerging countries. This paper, on the one hand presents the related...

I study the pricing of American Depositary Receipts around FOMC meetings to identify the impact of US monetary policy on managed exchange rates. ADR investors assess the domestic central bank’s reluctance to maintain a currency peg regime if the costs of mimicking policy rate increases in the...