For now, effective capital controls allow the Chinese authorities to retain regulated deposit and lending rates, quantitative credit guidance and bond market rationing. Relaxation of the capital controls would put these policies at risk. Reserve requirements can be extended to bank inflows from...

Unlike common wisdom, sterilized FX purchases under inflation targeting, i.e., those that keep the interest rate at the level targeted by the central bank, generally increase aggregate demand. We resort to a simple model with a credit channel to argue that FX purchases, by funding bank credit,...

A key challenge for macroeconomic policy in open economies is how to simultaneously manage exchange rates, interest rates and capital account openness - the trilemma. This paper calculates a trilemma index for India and investigates its evolution over time. We find that financial integration has...

Unlike common wisdom, sterilized FX purchases under inflation targeting, i.e., those that keep the interest rate at the level targeted by the central bank, generally increase aggregate demand. We resort to a simple model with a credit channel to argue that FX purchases, by funding bank credit,...

In 2019, President Trump called on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to depreciate the U.S. dollar, which, according to the IMF, is overvalued by between 6 and 12 percent. This paper uses an intertemporal general equilibrium model to explore what would likely happen if the...

This paper measures the effect of monetary tightening in key advanced economies on net capital flows and exchange rates around the world. Measuring this effect is complicated by the fact that the domestic monetary policies of affected economies respond endogenously to the foreign tightening...

We develop a novel, risk-based theory of the effects of currency manipulation. In our model, the choice of exchange rate regime allows policymakers to make their currency, and by extension, the firms in their country, a safer investment for international investors. Policies that induce a...

Floating exchange rates seem to be gaining ground in Latin America, East Asia and the transition economies. The recent crises left many economies with no alternative but to float. Others have moved toward floating, searching for greater flexibility and insulation from external shocks. The...

This paper analyzes the relation between exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real per capita output growth, the credit cycle, the stock of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU Member...