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The aim of this study is to investigate the possible contagion risk coming from energy, food and metals commodity … markets and to assess risk spillovers from biofuel to food commodity markets and from crude oil to food markets. To this … purpose, we use the delta Conditional Value-at-Risk ΔCoVaR) approach recently proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) based …
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We extend Jurado et al. (2015)'s forecast-error-based uncertainty measure to the international context, and construct a new measure of global uncertainty. We examine dynamic causal effects among global uncertainty and other global macroeconomic variables, and provide two important applications...
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Agents who acknowledge that their models are incorrectly specified are said to be ambiguity averse, and this affects the prices they are willing to trade at. Models for prices of commodities attempt to capture three stylized features: seasonal trend, moderate deviations (a diffusive factor), and...
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The present paper has two main objectives: first, to accurately estimate commodity price uncertainty; and second to analyze the uncertainty connectedness among commodity markets and the macroeconomic uncertainty, using the time-varying vector-autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. We use eight main...
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