We study global trade responses to the US-China trade war. We estimate the tariff impacts on product-level exports to the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and rest of world. Most countries export products that...

As in the case with perfect foresight, under conditions of uncertainty investors respond to changes in the assets' relative returns. An increase in the expected return of one asset here typically (if both assets are not perfectly correlated) induces a shift, but not a plunge toward that asset....