This work provides a comprehensive overview of the giant leap made by European central bank statistics over the last quarter century. We illustrate, first, the work that led to a brand-new set of central bank statistics for the implementation of the common monetary policy in the euro area and...

In a globalized world, more and more decisions taken by public and private agents are based, directly or indirectly, on international statistics. By putting the national data into perspective and/or complement them with additional indicators, data produced and disseminated by international...

In establishing the foundation of their investment process, global equity investors typically adopt a framework along geographic and/or industry dimensions. The chosen framework is then applied to the whole investment process including alpha generation, portfolio construction, and risk...

In this research we attempt to study empirically the casual relation among the degree of openness of the economy, the financial and economic growth using a multi-variate autoregressive model VAR. The Cointegration test results define the long-term relation among GDP, the financial development...

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...

This paper proposes a novel approach of classifying and modeling the nonlinear behavior of commodity prices using regime-switching models with exogenous transition variables. The approach rests on using the International Commercial Terms (Incoterms), also known as border prices, to classify...

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...

Economies, societies, and many natural systems evolve and change, sometimes dramatically, so good models and accurate forecasts are vital for policymakers to prepare for and navigate these changes successfully. Yet history is littered with forecasts that went badly wrong, sharply illustrated...

In this article, we analyse how much of the reduction in emerging markets spreads can be ascribed to specific factors - linked to the improvement in the 'fundamentals' of a given country - rather than to common factors - linked to global liquidity conditions and agents' degree of risk aversion....

Expansionary monetary policy in key industrial countries and a rapidly depreciating US dollar sent commodity prices soaring at unprecedented rates during 2003-2007. In contrast, consumer price indices in major OECD countries, a leading indicator for monetary policy, showed almost no inflation....