It is theoretically clear and may be verified empirically that efficient financial markets can make it less necessary for policy to try and offset the welfare effects of labour income risk and unequal consumption dynamics. The literature has also pointed out that, since international competition...

We survey contributions to the analysis of household liabilities, highlighting relevant theoretical aspects and outlining how data sources may support empirical testing and measurement efforts. Specifically, we classify aspects of household debt, discussing the theoretical and policy relevance...

We show that countries that take on more international risk are rewarded with higher expected consumption growth. International risk is defined as the beta of a country’s consumption growth with world consumption growth. High-beta countries hold more foreign assets, as predicted by the theory....

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We...

Governments around the world are attempting to support individuals' incomes, rescue distressed businesses, and preserve employer-employee relationships damaged in the coronavirus pandemic by adopting fiscal stimulus programs of unprecedented scale. Although the bulk of this spending will involve...

We quantify the exposure of major financial markets to news shocks about global contagion risk accounting for local epidemic conditions. For a wide cross section of countries, we construct a novel data set comprising (i) announcements related to COVID19, and (ii) high-frequency data on epidemic...

This short paper shows how excess global saving led to asset price inflation in U.S. stocks during 1981 to 2019. It compares stock PE ratios to corporate bond values to explain that investor exuberance for stocks enabled and enhanced the extent of the secular stock rise

This paper examines whether rare disaster can predict stock returns. We construct an aggregate rare disaster index by imposing the partial least square (PLS) approach on six news-implied rare disaster proxies of Manela and Moreira (2017). Our disaster measure strongly predicts monthly excess...

I present an improved equity momentum measure for corporate bonds and study the Euro denominated global investment grade corporate bond market between 2000 and 2016. I document economically meaningful and statistically significant corporate bond return predictability. In contrast to the widely...