This paper presents an analytical framework to assess the probability of achieving nationally determined contributions (NDC). The prediction model based on the Kaya identity is used to simulate the pathway of carbon emission until the target year. Applying the modified STIRPAT framework (named...

This paper presents an operational framework for assessing the trajectories of production, energy, emissions, and capital accumulation to ensure the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The framework combines widely used methodologies (STIRPAT, system dynamics, and...

On 11 March 2015, SUERF jointly organised a conference with the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and the Austrian Society for Bank Research (Bankwissenschaftliche Gesellschaft - BWG). The present SUERF Study 2015/2 includes a selection of papers based on the authors' contributions to the Vienna...

We analyze a large number of industry- and company-level filings of global institutional investors to provide the first comprehensive estimates of foreign investors' U.S. dollar (USD) security holdings and currency hedging practices. We find that foreign investors increased their holdings of USD...

The concept of a market portfolio plays an important role in many financial theories and models. Knowledge of each asset's share of the invested capital markets is both useful information and a good starting point for investors considering the appropriate allocation to the asset. In our latest...

In previous versions of our Value vs. Glamour study we have explored the historical performance of stocks based on their fundamental characteristics and quantified a value premium. Results have shown that over the long term, unpopular “value” stocks, those that are associated with companies...

This paper documents a significant time-series momentum effect that is consistent and robust across all examined conventional asset classes from 1969 to 2015. We find that the duration and magnitude of time-series momentum is different in developed and emerging markets, but this is no longer the...

Based on daily data from 1989-2016 we find that the correlations between some relevant commodity market futures and equity returns in the aggregate U.S. market, and specifically in the energy sector stocks have changed strongly during the stock market crisis periods. The correlation between...

For globally systemically important banks (G-SIBs) with U.S. headquarters, we find large post-Lehman reductions in market-implied probabilities of government bailout, along with big increases in debt financing costs for these banks after controlling for insolvency risk. The data are consistent...

This study analyzes the dynamic interactions between changes in economic policy uncertainty and the fluctuations in cost of credit protection. We find that the differenced iTraxx and CDX indices are Granger-caused by variations in the political environment. Within a Vector Autoregressive...