Geopolitical events can impact volatilities of all assets, asset classes, sectors and countries. It is shown that innovations to volatilities are correlated across assets and therefore can be used to measure and hedge geopolitical risk. We introduce a definition of geopolitical risk which is...

Using a multi-regime forecasting model, we investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on market volatility. We show that daily number of active cases and the Curvature are significant predictors of daily cross-section of both realized volatility and the GJR-GARCH volatility in global equity...

The global shadow banking system (SBS) continues to increase in size and scope at a steady pace. The Financial Stability Board estimates that in 2014, the global SBS reached 75 trillion USD, which is equivalent to 120% of the GDP of all measured jurisdictions in the world. Advanced economies...

Climate change could impose systemic risks upon the financial sector, either via disruptions in economic activity resulting from the physical impacts of climate change or changes in policies as the economy transitions to a less carbon-intensive environment. We develop a stress testing procedure...

William Shakespeare's Tragedy of King Richard III, written approximately in 1592, is the story of evil acts by the detested and misshapen hunchback, Richard, who plots to sow discontent among his brother, the King, and others, and has his brother murdered along with other wicked deeds in order...

Ten years ago, the financial crisis spurred research focused on systemic risk. This article examines the history and application of the SRISK measure, which was developed at that time and is now widely used in monitoring systemic risk around the globe. The concept is explained and a variety of...

We explore the design of climate stress tests to assess and manage macro-prudential risks from climate change in the financial sector. We review the climate stress scenarios currently employed by regulators, highlighting the need to (i) consider many transition risks as dynamic policy choices;...

Seasonal patterns in economic time series are generally examined from a univariate point of view. Using extensions of the unit root literature, important classes of seasonal processes are deterministic, stationary stochastic or mean reverting, and unit root stochastic. Time series tests have...