In this paper, we review the concept of risk, its evolution in history and the big changes we experienced in the last 50 years. We conclude that peak risks are growing and the need for risk management is becoming a societal demand. Two phenomena are identified to render risks more complex,...

Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...