forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …

actors' expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling to a newly compiled …

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information … price expectations that is substantially more accurate than the alternatives and more economically plausible. Our analysis …

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about market expectations. Exploiting this information … are as many measures of market expectations as there are estimates of the risk premium. We propose a general solution to … of the price of crude oil. We provide a new measure of oil price expectations that is considerably more accurate than the …

Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information … price expectations that is substantially more accurate than the alternatives and more economically plausible. Our analysis …