We introduce a novel framework to predict the relative accuracy of sell-side analysts' annual earnings forecasts out-of-sample. Prior studies only evaluate forecasts shortly before the corresponding earnings release. In contrast, our study is the first to provide long-term predictions which are...

This paper analyzes influences on the credit standing of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the quality, diversification and single name concentration of their portfolios, and on the market practice known as Preferred Creditor Status (PCS), whereby sovereigns that default on...

Index providers increasingly offer sustainable stock indices based on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) ratings of firms. The performance of such indices with ESG tilts is driven by the impact of the applied weighting methodology and by the ESG firm ratings. In this paper, we focus on...

We investigate whether ESG ratings predict future ESG news and the associated market reactions. We find that the consensus rating predicts future news, but its predictive ability diminishes for firms with large disagreement between raters. Relation between news and market reaction is moderated...

This paper analyzes influences on the credit standing of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), specifically the quality, diversification and single name concentration of their portfolios, and on the market practice known as Preferred Creditor Status (PCS), whereby sovereigns that default on...

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations play an increasingly important role in investment decisions. Due to data vendors’ lack of a common framework for creating ESG ratings, substantial disparities exist across vendors in their ESG ratings for the same company. ESG rating...

How will sovereign debt markets evolve in the 21st century? We survey how the literature has responded to the eurozone debt crisis, placing "lessons learned" in historical perspective. The crisis featured: (i) the return of debt problems to advanced economies; (ii) a bank-sovereign "doom-loop"...

In this paper we test whether the co-movement of sovereign CDS premia increased significantly after the Greek debt crisis started in October 2009. We perform a bivariate test for contagion that is based on an approach proposed by Forbes and Rigobon (2002). Our sample consists of daily data...

This paper attempts to find an aggregate leading indicator to predict the spreads observed for high-yield (HY) bond indices. Using a vector error correction (VEC) specification for quarterly data, we establish a long-term equilibrium relationship between the HY market spreads and its...

This article investigates the statistical and economic implications of adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data and alternative predictors. The candidate exchange rate predictors are drawn from (i) macroeconomic 'fundamentals', (ii) return/volatility of asset markets and (iii)...