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powerful Financial Stability Board, and augmenting the financial resources of the IMF. However, the international financial … architecture remains inadequate for the needs of many emerging market economies. The effectiveness of IMF surveillance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003901587
provide a comprehensive database covering four elements of the GFSN (foreign exchange reserves, IMF financing, central bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011565481
This paper studies the impact of the state-dependent risk of a government default on the correlation of the scal balance and current account. We use a small open economy model where nonlinear risk premia arise endogenously when the government operates close to its scal limit, i.e. the maximum...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010341080
Emerging countries that have defaulted on their debt repayment obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future than are non-defaulters even with the same debt-to-GDP ratio. This paper explains this stylized fact within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056385
We study a model of equilibrium sovereign default in which the government issues cocos (contingent convertible bonds) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments when the government faces liquidity shocks in the form of an increase of the bondholders' risk aversion. We find that in spite of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289445
Quantitative models of sovereign debt predict that countries should default during deep recessions. However, empirical research on sovereign debt has found a surprisingly large share of "good times" defaults (i.e., defaults that happen when GDP is above trend). Existing evidence also indicates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013173175
We argue that, through its effect on aggregate demand and country risk premia, sovereign debt restructuring can adversely affect the private sector's access to foreign capital markets. Using fixed effect analysis, we estimate that sovereign debt rescheduling episodes are indeed systematically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014056743
This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We find … that IMF programs significantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5 to 2 … sovereign defaults and program participation simultaneously. Furthermore, IMF programs turn out to be especially detrimental to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008695546
This paper discusses, in a very general way, a system of IMF insurance against sovereign default that could be offered … could be priced is also discussed in an appendix. Private lender membership in the IMF is also discussed. This would provide … the IMF with some of the powers that central banks now have. -- Sovereign debt ; insurance ; option value ; IMF …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003873257
As public debt soars, a new wave of sovereign defaults looms. International law on sovereign defaults is underdeveloped because States have largely refrained from adjudicating disputes arising out of public debt. The looming new wave of sovereign defaults is likely to shift dispute resolution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131991