In this paper I examine whether one can use analyst forecasts of macroeconomic variables to improve investors ex-ante allocation of wealth between stocks and bonds. Such forecasts provide a forward-looking approach which I find improves investor's information set for the myopic stock-bond...

Financial markets have experienced unprecedented transformations, signs of which have emerged since the late 1970s. In recent years substantial consolidation occurred. In response to changes in macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, industrial production, inflation and the political business...

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the social as well as professional lives of individuals. The COVID-19 pandemic pushed economies into a Lockdown. However, it generated the worst recession since the Great Depression. This paper concentrates primarily on the most contributing factors to the...

This Occasional Paper analyses how significant expansions in central banks’ mandates, roles and instruments can result in challenges to the independence of monetary policy. The paper reviews, in particular, some of the key challenges to central bank independence brought about by the global...

This Occasional Paper analyses how significant expansions in central banks' mandates, roles and instruments can result in challenges to the independence of monetary policy. The paper reviews, in particular, some of the key challenges to central bank independence brought about by the global...

Using the Johansen cointegration technique, we find empirical evidence of long run co-movements between five national stock market indexes and measures of aggregate real activity including the real oil price, real consumption, real money, and real output. Real returns on these indexes are...

This article surveys recent work on the role of law in determining economic aggregates such as gross domestic product, unemployment, inflation, and productivity growth. We provide a brief overview of macroeconomics and discuss how legal interventions and institutional arrangements such as...

It is well known fact that all good things, as also bad things, come to an end and business cycles pass through good and bad economic times. Economically 2010 was a year of transition from economic recession to recovery. Economies were improving in some countries and industries were showing...

Die Frage nach der Kausalität fällt in die Methodologie. Methodologie ist in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften ein Bereich, der sowohl bei Ökonomen als auch bei Philosophen kaum Beachtung findet. Ökonomik hat sich ursprünglich als eine kausal erklärende Wissenschaft verstanden. Sie wollte für...

This paper investigates the impact of the history of crises on macroeconomic performance. We first study the impact of past banking crises on the probability of a future banking crisis. Applying data for 1980 - 2010 for all countries for which the required information is available, controlling...