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Information rigidities in economic growth forecasts : evidence from a large international panel : conference paper
Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Loungani, Prakash; … - 2013
is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual … forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339322
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Forecasting Base Metal Prices with an International Stock Index
Pincheira, Pablo M.; Hardy, Nicolas; Henriquez, Cristóbal - 2021
In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226962
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Forecasting GDP All Over the World Using Leading Indicators Based on Comprehensive Survey Data
Garnitz, Johanna - 2019
, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast … major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most important WES …, adding the WES indicators of the main trading partners leads to a further increase of forecast accuracy in more than 50% of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867868
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Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data
Garnitz, Johanna; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2019
, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast … major WES indicators produces on average lower forecast errors compared to a benchmark model. Second, the most important WES …, adding the WES indicators of the main trading partners leads to a further increase of forecast accuracy in more than 50% of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026466
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Measuring and Forecasting Global Health Expenditures
Getzen, Thomas E. - 2014
Section I of this chapter briefly reviews the literature on medical spending, which suggests that health expenditures began small but steadily increased throughout history (from 1 percent to 4 percent of GDP), then began to increase rapidly among wealthier developed countries after 1950. Section...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039701
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Betting on Climate Policy : Using Prediction Markets to Address Global Warming
Lucas, Jr., Gary - 2019
Global warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather events have made climate change a top priority for policymakers across the globe. But which policies are best suited to tackle the enormous challenges presented by our changing climate? This Article proposes that policymakers turn to prediction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012899315
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Oil Price Forecastability and Economic Uncertainty
Bekiros, Stelios - 2015
Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coefficient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024926
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Does the Use of IFRS Have Any Role in Analysts' Forecasts? a Comparative Case between EU Countries and EU Associate Countries
Nure, Gazmend - 2023
reported" income statements. These changes lead to a decrease in the absolute forecast errors of analysts for both rising and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362421
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Dynamic prediction pools : an investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance
Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014
react in a timely fashion to changes in the environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other … methods of density forecast combination, such as Bayesian model averaging, optimal (static) pools, and equal weights. We show …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
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Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?
McCallum, Andrew H. - 2011
discusses how to forecast future oil price movements based on information from both the oil futures market and the spot market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117850