This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyze projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of...

For the past half-century, a debate has raged over when "peak oil" will occurthe point at which output can no longer increase and production begins to level off or gradually decline. Determining how long the oil supply will last has become even more pressing because the world's energy supply...

The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C' and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C'. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand....

Energy products such as power, gas, and oil have long been the world's premier commodities. Consumers demand that power and fuel are available when they want it and they prefer to pay less for it. Few know or care where their fuel or power comes from. So for years energy companies believed that...

The role of unconventional resources (e.g., oil sands and extra-heavy oil) is anticipated to increase in the global oil market. Although we are facing a scarcity of conventional (low cost) oil resources, unconventional oil resources might manage (for a period of time) to supply constraints in...

Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel, oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the sources of the recent decline in prices, and examines its macroeconomic, financial and policy implications. The recent drop...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the global market for crude oil and oil futures risk premium at the aggregate level. It offers empirical evidence on whether the compensation for risk required by the speculators depends on the type of the structural shock of interest....

This study analyses oil price movements through the lens of an agnostic random forest model, which is based on 1,000 regression trees. It shows that this highly disciplined, yet flexible computational model reduces in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by 65% relative to a standard linear...