This paper empirically investigates and theoretically reflects on the generality of the "stylized facts" discussed in business cycle analysis. Using OECD data for 1960 - 2010, the duration of business cycles as well as three models capturing core macroeconomic relations are estimated: based on...

I identify new patterns in countries' recoveries following the 2008 Global Crisis based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis zones. To understand the causes of the cross-country variation in recoveries, I develop an open economy...

I identify new patterns in countries' economic performance over the 2007-2014 period based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis areas. To understand the causes of the cross-country variation, I develop an open economy model with...

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 spread through different channels from its origin in the United States to large parts of the world. In this paper we explore the financial and the trade channel in a unified framework and quantify their relative importance for this transmission....

We introduce equilibrium indeterminacy into a two-country incomplete asset model with imperfect competition to analyze the role of self-fulfilling expectations or beliefs in explaining international business cycles. We show that when self-fulfilling beliefs are correlated with technology shocks,...

In this paper, I have investigated the out of sample forecast performance for a case study on the determination of the nominal exchange rate for USD vis-à-vis IN¬R under VEC, VAR (in first difference) and Bayesian VAR specification with the help of set of economic theories. The forecast...

Business cycle correlations are state-dependent and higher in recessions than in expansions. In this paper, I suggest a mechanism to explain why this is the case. For this purpose, I build an international real business cycle model with occasionally binding constraints on capacity utilization...

We study how international linkages and nominal price rigidities jointly shape the dynamics of inflation and output across multiple large economies. We describe how these features produce a global system of Phillips curves explicitly connected by multilateral trade relationships. In equilibrium,...

I identify new patterns in countries’ economic performance over the 2007-2014 period based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis areas. To understand the causes of the cross-country variation, I develop an open economy model with...

A large empirical literature has shown that countries that trade more with each other have more correlated business cycles. We show that previous estimates of this relationship are biased upward because they ignore common trade exposure to other countries. When we account for common trade...