The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of...

The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of...

Humankind is confronted with a "nuclear stewardship curse'', facing the prospect of needing to manage nuclear products over long time scales in the face of the short-time scales of human polities. I propose a super Manhattan-type effort to rejuvenate the nuclear energy industry to overcome the...

Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface to the Princeton Science Library Edition -- Preface to the 2002 Edition -- Chapter 1 FINANCIAL CRASHES: WHAT, HOW, WHY, AND WHEN? -- What Are Crashes, and Why Do We Care? -- The Crash of October 1987 -- Historical Crashes -- The Tulip Mania --...

Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in general, not directly observable and it is poorly constrained...

Neoclassical economic theory views current account imbalances as the result of (individual) decisions to save more than to invest domestically, in line with the loan-able funds doctrine. Monetary analysis in the Keynesian tradition rejects such approaches and emphasizes that a country's net...