The book provides a thorough and sophisticated descriptive analysis of business cycles in a historical perspective. The study is based on the latest available time series as well as latest techniques from the frequency domain. A combined univariate and bivariate analysis is conducted on the...

The global economy is expected to grow by four percent annually over the next two years. This is a slight increase in the German Institute for Economic Research forecast in comparison to that of the fall. The upswing will gain momentum in both developed and emerging economies. Private...

The globalization of capital and product markets has many implications for economic welfare. Countries can specialize in the production of goods for which they have comparative advantages, and capital is allocated more efficiently. However, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the...

We extract a global factor from cross-country output growth since 1960. We find that the fluctuations of the global factor are typically small, with the annualized unconditional volatility estimated at 0.06%, but highly persistent, with estimated persistence at 0.98. Evidence of time variation...

We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and...

International real business cycle models are not able to account for the high volatility of imports, exports, the trade balance and the terms of trade. By introducing exogenous exchange rate movements in addition to standard technological shocks, the model presented here comes much closer to...

International real business cycle models are not able to account for the high volatility of exports, imports, the trade balance and the terms of trade. By introducing exogenous exchange rate movements in addition to standard technological shocks, the model presented here comes much closer to...

Recent analysis focused on the gold and energy as hedge fund and channel for the cyclicity of the economic system. Within the occurrence of the prominent crisis the financial cycle became a nexus relation with the real sphere. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the commodities...