Showing 1 - 10 of 11,009
years with growing importance of China's money supply to global liquidity. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US …, China and non-US/non-China liquidity. Monetary model forecasts significantly outperform a random walk forecast in terms of … indicates changes over time in the influence of variables in forecasting the US dollar. China's liquidity has a distinct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013000233
years with growing importance of China's money supply to global liquidity. We develop out-of-sample forecasts of the US …, China and non-US/non-China liquidity. Monetary model forecasts significantly outperform a random walk forecast in terms of … indicates changes over time in the influence of variables in forecasting the US dollar. China's liquidity has a distinct …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970151
China has been promoting the internationalization of the RMB for two decades now, and as a result, its offshore foreign … exchange market has been substantially revitalized, even though China’s capital market remains partially open. The movements of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322704
from this study show that commodity prices as represented by oil price changes and the growth of China's economy are the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012062695
This paper explores the drivers of sovereign defaults in 100 countries over the period 1996-2012. We build a new data set of sovereign defaults and find that default events on local and foreign currency bonds are equally likely. However, governments default under different economic and financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938192
Using detailed firm-level transactions data for UK imports, we find that invoicing in a vehicle currency is pervasive, with more than half of transactions in our sample invoiced in neither sterling nor the exporter's currency. We then study the relationship between invoicing currency choices and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029070
This paper reviews three different concepts of equilibrium exchange rates that are widely used in policy analysis and constitute the backbone of the IMF CGER assessment: the Macroeconomic Balance, the External Sustainability and the reduced form approaches. We raise a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605197
We study the differences of currency misalignment estimates obtained from alternative datasets derived from two International Comparison Program (ICP) surveys. A decomposition exercise reveals that the year 2005 misalignment estimates are substantially affected by the ICP price revision....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277395
We characterize the relationship between ex post exchange rate depreciation and the interest differential for a set of countries that spans both developed and emerging market economies. Measured ex post uncovered interest differentials are then related to measures of trade and financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285319
This paper reviews three different concepts of equilibrium exchange rates that are widely used in policy analysis and constitute the backbone of the IMF CGER assessment: the Macroeconomic Balance, the External Sustainability and the reduced form approaches. We raise a number of econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003970419