could eventually lead to banking crises. We explore this issue formally by assessing the performance of these debt … categories as early warning indicators (EWIs) for systemic banking crises. We find that they do contain useful information. In …

This paper examines banking crises in a large sample of countries over a forty-year period. A multinomial modeling … policy makers continue to confront banking crises, leading to high economic and social costs, enhanced multinomial modeling …

Historically, unusually strong increases in credit and asset prices have tended to precede banking crises. Could the …

This paper presents a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 88 banking crises since 1990 …. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but less so during NPL resolutions. We find a close … relationship between NPL problems-elevated and unresolved NPLs-and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning …

The paper analyzes a very stylized model of crises and demonstrates how the degree of strategic complementarity in the …

association with recessions and financial crises. We find that the DSR prior to economic slumps is related to the size of the … subsequent output losses. Moreover, the DSR provides a very accurate early warning signal of impending systemic banking crises at …