We propose an extended time-varying parameter Vector Autoregression that allows for an evolving relationship between the variances of the shocks. Using this model, we show that the relationship between the conditional variance of GDP growth and the long-term interest rate has become weaker over...

The present study compares the performance of the long memory FIGARCH model, with that of the short memory GARCH specification, in the forecasting of multi-period Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across 20 stock indices worldwide. The dataset is comprised of daily data covering...

We use top income data and the newly developed regime switching Gaussian mixture vector autoregressive model to explain the dynamics of income inequality in developed economies during the last 100 years. Our results indicate that the process of income inequality consists of two equilibriums...

We analyse the cross-country dimension of financial cycles by studying cyclical co-movements in credit, house prices, equity prices and interest rates across the G7 economies. We use wavelet-based statistics to assess at which frequencies cyclical fluctuations and their crosscountry co-movements...

This volume was prepared by Benedikt Heid while he was working at the ifo Institute and the University of Bayreuth. It was completed in December 2013 and accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München. It includes six self-contained...

This volume was prepared by Benedikt Heid while he was working at the ifo Institute and the University of Bayreuth. It was completed in December 2013 and accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München. It includes six self-contained...

Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of crises in terms of...

Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of crises in terms of...

Several empirical studies are concerned with measuring the effect of currency and current account crises on economic growth. Using different empirical models this paper serves two aspects. It provides an explicit assessment of country specific factors influencing the costs of crises in terms of...

This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching framework is proposed to jointly estimate the impact of...