This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

Although uncertainty plays an important role in economic decisionmaking, empirical measures of individuals' uncertainty are rare. The literature on cognition and communication documents that people use round numbers to convey uncertainty. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the...

The study investigates the existence and extent of information rigidity in inflation forecasts among 25 developed and 18 developing economies during 2002-2017 period utilizing a survey data set never explored before on this issue. In general, the study finds some evidence of information...

We derive a measure of aggregate systemic risk, designated CATFIN, that complements bank-specific systemic risk measures by forecasting macroeconomic downturns six months into the future using out-of-sample tests conducted with US, European and Asian bank data. Consistent with bank...

We derive a measure of aggregate systemic risk, designated CATFIN, that complements bank-specific systemic risk measures by forecasting macroeconomic downturns six months into the future using out-of-sample tests conducted with US, European and Asian bank data. Consistent with bank...

Even though correlations between different economies' stock markets have empirically increased over time, it would have been advantageously to invest in developing countries' stock markets such as the Indian stock market, instead of investing in the US-stock market when considering the overall...

By matching a large database of individual forecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: (i) forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; (ii) information rigidity declines...

Concluding thoughts and outlook for the future of the technology. For Chapter 1 (Introduction), see "https://ssrn.com/abstract=3135021" https://ssrn.com/abstract=3135021. For Chapter 2 (Means of Exchange: Ever-present Competition), "https://ssrn.com/abstract=3135028"...

In this chapter, we discuss economic aspects of cryptocurrencies. 4.1. The double spending problem 4.2. How does Bitcoin work? Brief overview 4.3. Not the first one – predecessors of Bitcoin 4.4. Problems with Bitcoin (new challenges) 4.5. Competition against other crypto-currencies 4.6....

Do crises make people more prosocial? And what role does communication play in promoting such attitudes and behavior? These answers matter for post-crisis economic recovery as social capital has been linked to growth. We leverage the incidence of COVID-19 --a multifaceted global crisis-- and...