This paper shows that the impact of the global money supply is disproportionally high for energy than for non-energy commodities prices. An increase in the global money supply for energy commodity prices results mostly in demand-pull inflation. However, for non-energy commodity prices, an...

Exchange rates typically exhibit time-varying patterns in both means andvariances. The histograms of such series indicate heavy tails. In thispaper we construct models which enable a decision-maker to analyze theimplications of such time series patterns for currency risk management.Our approach...

We construct models which enable a decision-maker to analyze the implications oftypical timeseries patterns of daily exchange rates for currency risk management. Ourapproach is Bayesianwhere extensive use is made of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The effects ofseveral modelcharacteristics...