This paper examines cointegration and Granger causality between Taiwan's consumer price index (CPI) and raw material import price indices, including crude oil, steel, copper, aluminum, corn, and soybean with monthly data during 1991-2007. By applying Hsiao's version of the Granger causality...

An econometric model of world trade in iron or and steel was developed to examine the impact on world supply, demand, trade, and prices due to prolonged growth in Chinese industrial production. The model - built in 1993 adequately predicted the phenomenal growth in production and prices that...

This paper examines the extent to which changes in global agricultural commodity price are transmitted to domestic prices in India and China. The focus is on short and medium-run adjustment processes using an error correction specification. In particular, we show that the extent of adjustment in...

The aim of this study is twofold – on the one hand, to report a flow analysis based on historical trends of steel, from 1997 to 2008, across some leading geo-economic players; on the other, the analysis of long-term relationship between steel consumption and economic growth by the sensitivity...

This paper suggests that there was a negative bubble in oil prices in 2014/15, which decreased them beyond the level justified by economic fundamentals. This proposition is corroborated by two sets of bubble detection strategies: the first set consists of tests for financial bubbles, while the...

This paper examines the persistence of shocks to world commodity prices, using monthly IMF data on primary commodities between 1957-98. We find that shocks to commodity prices are typically long-lasting and the variability of the persistence of price shocks is quite wide. The paper also...

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...