This paper's field evidence is: (1) many official sectors rapidly forget the damage of the 1982-85 exchange rate liquidity crisis and reverted to what caused that crisis, namely a closed economy clean floats perspective; and (2) the 2006-2008/9 exchange rate liquidity shock would have been more...

This paper surveys a wide body of economic literature on the relationship between currencies and trade. Specifically, two main issues are investigated: the impact on international trade of exchange rate volatility and of currency misalignments. On average, exchange rate volatility has a negative...

The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative quot;behavioralquot; model, which...

This paper presents a methodology for the calculation of bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees consistency at the global level. A theoretical model, which encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange...

This chapter surveys recent theoretical and empirical contributions on foreign exchange rate determination. The chapter first examines monetary models under uncovered interest parity and rational expectations, and then considers deviations from UIP/rational expectations: foreign exchange risk...

We build currency portfolios based on the paradigm that exchange rates slowly converge to their equilibrium to highlight three results. First, this property can be exploited to build profitable portfolios. Second, the slow pace of convergence at short-horizons is consistent with the evidence of...

Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A "standard" model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is...