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Gambling traps
Ari, Anil - 2018
I propose a dynamic general equilibrium model in which strategic interactions between banks and depositors may lead to endogenous bank fragility and slow recovery from crises. When banks' investment decisions are not contractible, depositors form expectations about bank risk-taking and demand a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011959253
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The early warnings of balance-of-payments problems : Kaminsky and Reinhart revisited
Lang, Michael - 2013
This paper builds upon the model of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and extends it to triplecrises. It applies a new visualisation approach combining elements of an event study analysis and a fan chart technique. This approach illustrates the deviation of fundamentals in the runup to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010196950
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Warding Off Financial Market Failure : How to Avoid Squeezed Margins and Bad Haircuts
Longworth, David - 2012
Regulators aiming to ward off the next financial market failure need to implement rules to smooth the boom-bust cycle in margin requirements and haircuts used in securities financing and derivative transactions, which seriously exacerbated the last financial crisis. In this study, the author...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115282
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Sovereign risk and bank risk-taking
Ari, Anil - 2018
I propose a dynamic general equilibrium model in which strategic interactions between banks and depositors may lead to endogenous bank fragility and slow recovery from crises. When banks' investment decisions are not contractible, depositors form expectations about bank risk-taking and demand a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978544
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Do surges in international capital flows influence the likelihood of banking crises? : cross-country evidence on capital flows bonanzas and bonanza-boom-bust cycles
Caballero, Julian - 2010
This paper asks if bonanzas (i.e. surges) in net capital flows are associated with a higher likelihood of banking crises and whether this association is necessarily through a lending boom mechanism. Using a new database covering over one hundred countries during 1973-2008, the paper shows that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008698941
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Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom-Bust Cycles
Caballero, Julián - 2012
This paper asks whether bonanzas (surges) in net capital inflows increase the probability of banking crises and whether this is necessarily through a lending boom mechanism. A fixed effects regression analysis indicates that a baseline bonanza, identified as a surge of one standard deviation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013104035
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Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom-Bust Cycles
Caballero, Julián - 2011
This paper asks whether bonanzas (surges) in net capital inflows increase the probability of banking crises and whether this is necessarily through a lending boom mechanism. A fixed effects regression analysis indicates that a baseline bonanza, identified as a surge of one s.d. deviation from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133353
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Capital flows and economic growth in the era of financial integration and crisis : 1990 - 2010
Aizenman, Joshua; Jinjarak, Yothin; Park, Donghyun - 2011
We investigate the relationship between economic growth and lagged international capital flows, disaggregated into FDI, portfolio investment, equity investment, and shortterm debt. We follow about 100 countries during 1990-2010 when emerging markets became more integrated into the international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009316233
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Learning from history : volatility and financial crises
Daníelsson, Jón; Valenzuela, Marcela; Zer, Ilknur - 2016
We study the effects of stock market volatility on risk-taking and financial crises by constructing a cross …-country database spanning up to 211 years and 60 countries. Prolonged periods of low volatility have strong in-sample and out …-of-sample predictive power over the incidence of banking crises and can be used as a reliable crisis indicator, whereas volatility itself …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011578981
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Foreign Vulnerabilities, Domestic Risks : The Global Drivers of GDP-at-Risk
Lloyd, Simon; Manuel, Ed; Panchev, Konstantin - 2021
We study how foreign financial developments influence the conditional distribution of domestic GDP growth. Within a quantile regression setup, we propose a method to parsimoniously account for foreign vulnerabilities using bilateral-exposure weights when assessing downside macroeconomic risks....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211974