signals and, as a consequence, may increase uncertainty and amplify the reaction of expectations to macroeconomic news …. However, when the increase in precision of public information is sufficiently large, uncertainty is unambiguously reduced …

signals and, as a consequence, may increase uncertainty and amplify the reaction of expectations to macroeconomic news …. However, when the increase in precision of public information is sufficiently large, uncertainty is unambiguously reduced. …

high economic uncertainty, and whether it differs depending on the role or position of the speaker. The findings suggest …

beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since confict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over … process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases …