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The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09 confirmed the vital importance of advancing our understanding of macrofinancial linkages, the two-way interactions between the real economy and the financial sector. The crisis was a bitter reminder of how sharp fluctuations in asset prices, credit and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929483
Many commentators have argued that if the Federal Reserve had followed a stricter monetary policy earlier this decade when the housing bubble was forming, and if Congress had not deregulated banking but had imposed tighter financial standards, the housing boom and bust - and the subsequent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155688
This paper addresses the following questions. Is there evidence of financial contagion in the Eurozone? To what extent … a country's vulnerability to contagion depends on "fundamentals" as opposed the government's "credibility"? We look at … matter concerning the Euro Zone. Second, differences in vulnerability to contagion within the Eurozone are even more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011731038
We examine the time-frequency lead-lag relationships and the degree of integration between the US financial stress index and global commodity prices (i.e., oil, gold, silver, and cocoa) with data covering over 47 decades (January 1975 to December 2021). For this purpose, we resort to the bi- and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013389437
This paper proposes Spillover Persistence as a measure for financial fragility. The volatility paradox predicts that … fragility builds up when volatility is low, which challenges existing measures. Spillover Persistence tackles this challenge by …. Variation in financial constraints connects Spillover Persistence to fragility. The results are consistent with the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012499703
We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero …-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward … slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902489
I show that volatility risk of the dollar factor --- an equally weighted basket of developed U.S. dollar exchange rates … --- carries a significant risk premium and that it is priced in the cross-section of currency volatility excess returns. The … dollar factor volatility risk premium is negative on average with an upward sloping and concave term structure. Consistent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920214
We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751251
Since the global financial crisis, there has been renewed interest in understanding how monetary policy shocks transmit across countries through risk variables, spurring a literature on the "global financial cycle." This paper studies how (conventional and unconventional) monetary policy shocks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834260
that influence long-run growth rates and volatility. A match between the model and observed average rates of return …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012854524