The large inflow of investment capital to commodity futures markets in the last decade has generated a heated debate about whether financialization distorts commodity prices. Rather than focusing on the opposing views concerning whether investment flows either did or did not cause a price...

This paper addresses the question of whether the oil price spike of 2003-2008 was a bubble. We document and discuss what is known about the level of speculation in the paper oil market. We then analyze the dynamics of the term structure of futures prices, both during the earlier period of...

Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures...

This paper investigates the relationship between futures prices and financial investments in derivatives of the main agricultural commodities. We first provide a broad picture of how these markets function and how they have evolved, showing that traders who deal mostly in commodity index...

We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized and expected variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document...

We analyze the relationship between economic uncertainty and commodity market volatility. We find that commodity market volatility comoves strongly with economic and financial uncertainty, especially during recessions. Variables associated with credit risk, financial market stress, and...

I develop and test a model to study the interaction between the commodity and stock markets. This study attempts to clarify the debate about the effect of financialization on commodity markets. Theoretically, the futures risk premium is determined by hedging pressure, stock market returns, and...

As a source of energy of biofuel and edible oil, the fluctuation of crude palm oil prices is the concern of producers and manufacturers. However, little is known about the impact of global financial crisis on informational efficiency of crude palm oil (CPO) futures market. Hence, this study aims...

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive...

Using daily returns on 34 futures contracts over the 2010-2022 period, we examine the factors driving these returns. We show that all commodities can be grouped by their drivers into intuitive groups based on their factorization into 1) food, 2) metals and oil and 3) precious metals. The three...