Showing 1 - 10 of 1,687
This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a GVAR model for five large Latin American economies shows that the long-term impact of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328125
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968623
China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969747
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948538
China's rapid growth over the past decade has been one of the main drivers of the rise in mineral commodity demand and prices. At a time when concerns about the sustainability of China's growth model are rising, this paper assesses to what extent a hard landing in China would impact other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019979
We extend Jurado et al. (2015)'s forecast-error-based uncertainty measure to the international context, and construct a new measure of global uncertainty. We examine dynamic causal effects among global uncertainty and other global macroeconomic variables, and provide two important applications...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908344
In this paper, I have investigated the out of sample forecast performance for a case study on the determination of the nominal exchange rate for USD vis-à-vis IN¬R under VEC, VAR (in first difference) and Bayesian VAR specification with the help of set of economic theories. The forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910274
The international business cycle is very important for Latin America's economic performance as the recent global crisis vividly illustrated. This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission mechanism of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121741
The international business cycle is very important for Latin America's economic performance as the recent global crisis vividly illustrated. This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission mechanism of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009311486
We investigate whether frictions in US financial markets amplify the international propagation of US financial shocks. The dynamics of the US economy is modeled jointly with global macroeconomic and financial variables using a threshold vector autoregression that allows us to capture...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010493885