This paper analyzes long-run co-movements between international real estate stock markets and between regions based on bivariate and multivariate tests for cointegration. While the topic has been analyzed in previous studies such as Gallo and Zhang (2009) and Yunus (2009) among others, this...

This paper analyzes long-run co-movements between international real estate stock markets and between regions based on bivariate and multivariate tests for cointegration. While the topic has been analyzed in previous studies such as Gallo and Zhang (2009) and Yunus (2009) among others, this...

This paper assesses the extent to which common factors underlie indicators of vulnerability to financial crises in emerging market economies and whether this link is changing over time. We use a Bayesian dynamic common factor model to estimate their common component in a sample of up to 41...

We investigate the persistence of real exchange rates using Bayesian methods. First, an algorithm for Bayesian estimation of nonlinear threshold models is developed. Unlike standard grid-based estimation, the Bayesian approach fully captures joint parameter uncertainty and uncertainty about...

We propose a new approach to imposing economic constraints on forecasts of the equity premium. Economic constraints are used to modify the posterior distribution of the parameters of the predictive return regression in a way that better allows the model to learn from the data. We consider two...

In this paper we examine the empirical performance of affine jump diffusion models with stochastic volatility in a time series study of crude oil prices. We compare four different models and estimate them using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. The support for a stochastic volatility model...

Unexpected shifts in the realized stock market volatility, often associated with financial crises, carry a significantly negative risk premium across stocks and Treasuries, which suggests the existence of a unified pricing model. Investors require a premium for holding the risky assets (stocks),...

Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting via a computational Bayesian framework is considered. A range of parametric models are compared, including standard, threshold nonlinear and Markov switching GARCH specifications, plus standard and nonlinear stochastic volatility models, most considering four...

This article investigates fve safe-haven asset responses from 2014 to 2022, includ‑ ing the unprecedented COVID-19 crisis, Russian invasion of Ukraine, and sharp US inter‑ est rate increases of 2015 and 2022. We apply the unique approach of the multivariate factor stochastic volatility (MSV)...

This paper analyzes long-run co-movements between international real estate stock markets and between regions based on bivariate and multivariate tests for cointegration. While the topic has been analyzed in previous studies such as Gallo and Zhang (2009) and Yunus (2009) among others, this...