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I show that volatility risk of the dollar factor --- an equally weighted basket of developed U.S. dollar exchange rates … --- carries a significant risk premium and that it is priced in the cross-section of currency volatility excess returns. The … dollar factor volatility risk premium is negative on average with an upward sloping and concave term structure. Consistent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920214
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero …-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward … slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates significant excess returns. The covariation with volatility carry returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902489
This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since .the early 1990s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226778
This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. The former is exploited by trend-following models, while the latter by contrarian models. In total, the performance of 2580 widely used models is analyzed. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135708
Using daily returns on 34 futures contracts over the 2010-2022 period, we examine the factors driving these returns. We show that all commodities can be grouped by their drivers into intuitive groups based on their factorization into 1) food, 2) metals and oil and 3) precious metals. The three...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256376
We present a new, theoretically motivated, forecasting variable for exchange rates that is based on the prices of quanto index contracts, and show via panel regressions that the quanto forecast variable is a statistically and economically significant predictor of currency appreciation. We also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012958740
Based on daily data from 1989-2016 we find that the correlations between some relevant commodity market futures and equity returns in the aggregate U.S. market, and specifically in the energy sector stocks have changed strongly during the stock market crisis periods. The correlation between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012949196
100 US dollars again. This study explains the volatility of petroleum futures contracts as low and high volatility in two … January 1990 to October 2017, the transition probabilities and durations between two different volatility regimes of oil … futures prices are explained. The volatility of the oil futures contract is switching between two regimes with low volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914438
Fat-tailed commodity price innovations are well-documented in the literature and long recognized as disruptive for consumers and producers, yet little is known about what factors drive such extreme events. Utilizing a wide range of factors from the economics and finance literature and quantile...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114046