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is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual … forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution. …
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We estimate that the supply of sovereign safe assets is a major driver of neutral interest rates--real rates consistent with both economic activity and inflation at their trends. We find this result using an empirical cross-country model with many economic drivers for the neutral rates of 11...
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