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Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns
Guzman, Giselle - 2012
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110732
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Are There Goodwin Employment-Distribution Cycles? International Empirical Evidence
García Molina, Mario - 2011
Goodwin's predator-prey model predicts clockwise cycles in the employment–distribution space. Qualitative evidence is provided in favour of nonlinear dynamic behaviour for a sample of 67 countries, some of which have cycles similar to those predicted by the model. Predicted centres lie outside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131341
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On the Credit-to-GDP Gap and Spurious Medium-Term Cycles
Schüler, Yves S. - 2020
The Basel III framework advises considering a reference indicator at the country level to guide the setting of the countercyclical capital buffer: the credit-to-GDP gap. In this paper, I provide empirical evidence suggesting that the credit-to-GDP gap is subject to spurious medium-term cycles,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833525
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On the Credit-to-GDP Gap and Spurious Medium-Term Cycles
Schüler, Yves Stephan - 2020
The Basel III framework advises considering a reference indicator at the country level to guide the setting of the countercyclical capital buffer: the credit-to-GDP gap. In this paper, I provide empirical evidence suggesting that the credit-to-GDP gap is subject to spurious medium-term cycles,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838830
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On the Sources of Business Cycles : Implications for DSGE Models
Andrle, Michal - 2017
What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956242
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Detrending and Financial Cycle Facts Across G7 Countries : Mind a Spurious Medium Term!
Schüler, Yves Stephan - 2018
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012923312
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Detrending and Financial Cycle Facts Across G7 Countries : Mind a Spurious Medium Term!
Schüler, Yves Stephan - 2018
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929797
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Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries : mind a spurious medium term!
Schüler, Yves S. - 2018
I show that the detrending of financial variables with the Hodrick and Prescott (1981, 1997) (HP) and band-pass filters leads to spurious cycles. I find that distortions become especially severe when considering medium-term cycles, i.e., cycles that exceed the duration of regular business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813473
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The Global Business Cycle within the New Commodities and the Financial Cycle : An Empirical Evidence Based on a Multivariate Unobserved Components Model (UCM)
Thalassinos, Eleftherios Ioannis; Hakim, Amira - 2022
Recent analysis focused on the gold and energy as hedge fund and channel for the cyclicity of the economic system. Within the occurrence of the prominent crisis the financial cycle became a nexus relation with the real sphere. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the commodities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013295972
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Measurement of globalization and its variations among countries, regions and over time
Bhandari, Amit K.; Heshmati, Almas - 2005
The process of globalization is an international economic order which has led to the progressive integration of the … technological innovation also provides impetus to the progressive integration of the nations. The elements of globalization include … economic benefits, globalization also indicates the flow of ideas, norms, information and peoples. There is a large …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267513