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actors' expectations. To identify news coverage about the Greek debt crisis, we apply topic modeling to a newly compiled …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159621
quarterly Brent crude oil price forecasts. We examine the expectations building mechanism by referring to the processing of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661948
In assessing drivers of commodity prices and volatility at this stage of the current super-cycle in commodities (year 12 of a projected 25), it is vital to understand that production cost is a fundamental. Moreover, marginal production costs are among the most powerful drivers of commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120803
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110732
. Our findings highlight the prominent role of expectations in propagating shocks. Negative oil supply news shocks cause …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215283
Can a temporary negative shock generate long-lasting effects on economic activities? To show causal evidence, we utilize data from Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs) and explore the economic impact of the unexpected escalation of an island dispute between China and Japan in 2012. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554377
-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028690
Almost four centuries later, the Dutch tulipmania of the 17th century is always mentioned as a mania and used as a reference point in the aftermath of contemporaneous economic and financial crises since the late 1990s. Studies investigating what drove the tulip speculation throughout 17th and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845807
' expectations respond to first and second moment shocks. In our model, we retain "rational news" through Bayesian learning and … light on factors driving overreaction in expectations and highlight the importance of uncertainty shocks in propagating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013309629
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157655