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Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...
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forecasting horizons. Therefore, a long memory volatility model compared to a short memory GARCH model does not appear to improve …
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This book presents methodologies for the Bayesian estimation of GARCH models and their application to financial risk … paradigm for inference. The next three chapters describe the estimation of the GARCH model with Normal innovations and the … between individuals can be substantial in terms of regulatory capital. The last chapter proposes the estimation of a Markov …
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degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which … forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation … distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized …
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