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pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011340986
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper develops new forecasting methods for an old problem by employing 13 machine …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362692
nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306598
Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … forecasting di- rectly aggregate variables (direct approaches)out-perform methods based on the aggregation of country- specific …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605105
Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … forecasting directly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based on the aggregation of country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867019
This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339046
This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484392
and forecasting the global outlook. Our main results are that (i) the rise of the emerging countries has sharply altered … the correlation of growth rates among the main economic areas; (ii) this is clearly detectable in forecasting equations as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108345
This paper studies professional forecasts on a micro level using three alternative data sets. The analysis is mainly based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts for the euro area, but for comparison, Consensus Economics survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087114