usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of …

. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the oil market by setting up a general empirical framework that …

paper investigates the impact of EPU on the crude oil return volatility and which EPU index has the most forecasting power … results show that the US EPU index has the best forecasting power for crude oil return volatility over the long-term, whereas … China EPU index has the best forecasting performance in the past one year. Our findings have important implications on risk …