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This work presents a robust empirical approach to dealing with the issue of the long run relationship between macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare for a large sample of countries. Differing from previous works, our empirical strategy is grounded on consumption and takes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102776
. -- household wealth ; housing subsidy scheme ; house price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003604923
This Policy Analysis explains the antecedents of the current global financial crisis and critically examines the reasoning behind the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve's actions to prop up the financial sector. It argues that recovery from the financial crisis is likely to be slow with or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156705
We build a panel of 14 emerging economies to estimate the magnitude of housing, stock market, and money wealth eÞects on consumption. Using modern panel data econometric techniques and quarterly data for the period 1990:1-2008:2, we show that: (i) wealth effects are statistically significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831615
In this paper, we show, from the consumer's budget constraint, that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption, aggregate wealth, and labour income should predict both stock returns and government bond yields. We use data for several OECD countries and find that when agents expect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128867
Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key ques- tion is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321652
Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, p references, and, hence, spending....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013324580
We confirm the negative relationship between household debt and future GDP growth documented in Mian, Sufi, and Verner … relationship. First, debt overhang impairs household consumption when negative shocks hit. Second, increases in household debt … be systematically neglected due to investors' overoptimistic expectations associated with household debt booms. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918565
A number of economists argue that household deleveraging can exert a significant drag on the economic recovery by … household saving rates and changes in debt-to-income ratios. This relationship is however asymmetric, being statistically and … adjustment in saving rates associated with household deleveraging may widely differ across countries and may be overestimated for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034205
Historically high household debt in several economies is calling for a deleveraging, but according to some economists …, this paper finds evidence of a negative relationship between changes of household debt-to-income ratios and saving rates … suggest that the economic cost associated with household deleveraging may be overestimated and motivate a deleveraging via …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306732