. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems. -- Oil price ; survey data ; forecast bias ; peso problem …We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations … role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark …

forecasts, this bias tending to be higher in countries with less investor protection. This forecast bias declined significantly …

We investigate the association between corporate international diversification and the accuracy and bias of consensus … more optimistic forecasts. Our results suggest that international diversification reflects unique dimensions of forecasting … geographically diversified, forecasting their earnings becomes more complex …

This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non …-unitary expenditure elasticities of import demand implied by non-homothetic preferences in the previous year to be further combined with … the current change in expenditure to forecast the current imports. Using U.S. data on aggregate expenditure and good …