. -- nominalism ; money illusion ; heuristic ; unpredictability ; experiment ; SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory ; prominent … laboratory. Third, nominalist heuristics are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and … are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation stage can involve systematic mistakes …

Analyst forecasting bias is frequently attributed to opportunism. We argue that opportunism is not a necessary … condition for bias and propose a simple model, based on research in behavioral economics and psychology, of belief …-based probability weighting. The model is used to develop benchmarks which we test empirically. Our model explains the change in the …

. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems. -- Oil price ; survey data ; forecast bias ; peso problem …